19 Apr

Pelicans star out for Play-In game vs. Kings with hamstring strain

New Orleans Pelicans star Zion Williamson suffered a left hamstring strain and could miss the next two weeks, including the team’s win-or-go-home Play-In Tournament game Friday against the Sacramento Kings, the team announced. Williamson suffered the injury late in the fourth quarter of the Pelicans’ 110-106 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round of the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday.

An MRI taken Wednesday morning confirmed the injury as Williamson will be re-examined in approximately two weeks.

With just over three minutes remaining, Williamson drove inside for a tough bucket that tied the game and gave him 40 points on the night. He grimaced as soon as he landed, however, and motioned to the bench for a substitution. At the next timeout, he hobbled back to the locker room and did not return.

Here’s the play where Williamson injured himself.

40 POINTS now for Zion in the #SoFiPlayIn! https://t.co/ZFtcV3tLt0 pic.twitter.com/wtGR2vzY65

— NBA (@NBA) April 17, 2024
Williamson finished with 40 points, 11 rebounds and five assists. He was exploding to the rim both in the half-court and in transition, seeking out slivers of space and bulldozing through them for finishes of equal parts force and finesse.

He defended all night, too, standing up LeBron James with a live dribble on multiple occasions. He was on a clear mission. And he was delivering. And then, in a blink, just when it looked like he was about to lead the Pelicans to a dramatic comeback victory, his night, and the Pelicans’ shot at the 7 seed, ended.

If you want to look at the glass half full as a Pelicans fan, winning this game wouldn’t have brought much of a reward — unless you consider playing, and very likely losing to, the Nuggets in the first round sounds like fun. The Pelicans are now playing with fire in a one-game elimination with the Kings, but if they can get out of that with a win, they will play the Thunder in the first round.

The Thunder are no picnic, but they’re not the Nuggets. That would be a more winnable series for the Pels, but only if they have Williamson available. Per Wojnarowski, Williamson is to be re-evaluated in the coming weeks, which suggests that even if the Pelicans get to the first round, it may be a long shot for him to play.

19 Apr

NBA hands down lifetime ban after prop bet irregularities

The NBA issued a lifetime ban to Toronto Raptors forward Jontay Porter on Wednesday for violating league gambling rules. The league’s investigation found Porter guilty of “disclosing confidential information to sports bettors, limiting his own participation in one or more games for betting purposes, and betting on NBA games.” The league’s probe is ongoing, but it was initially launched due to irregularities surrounding prop bets based on his statistics.

The brewing scandal is the latest in a series of sports gambling controversies that have arisen of late. In the last month alone, Major League Baseball has dealt with betting issues involving Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani and his interpreter, while gambling watchdog company U.S. Integrity is investigating the Temple University men’s basketball team due to “suspicious betting activity.”

But the Porter situation, pending the results of the full investigation, has a chance to spiral into one of the worst sports betting scandals since legalization began to spread in 2018. The NBA is still investigating the integrity of games Porter himself participated in. The league’s report, released Wednesday, centered around the Raptors’ game against the Sacramento Kings on March 20, where Porter “disclosed confidential information about his own health status” to someone he knew was a bettor. Another bettor then wagered $80,000 on a parlay bet that would have won $1.1 million if Porter hit the under on his player props. Porter subsequently removed himself from that game after less than three minutes due to illness.

Due to the unusual activity, the bet was frozen and never paid out. Licensed sports betting operators brought the suspicious bets to the NBA’s attention, which sparked the league’s investigation.

Finding evidence that he made bets against himself or had involvement with anyone who bet against him represents a first since the sports gambling boom started six years ago.

So for now, let’s look at what exactly we know and what might be coming.

Who is Jontay Porter?
Jontay Porter is a 24-year-old forward who played collegiately at the University of Missouri. His brother is Denver Nuggets star Michael Porter Jr. Porter was a highly touted prospect in high school, but went undrafted in 2019 due largely to injuries. In 2018, he tore both his ACL and MCL, and while rehabbing in 2019, he tore his ACL again.

His development was stunted thanks to those injuries, and he’s been a bit of a journeyman as a professional. He has played for the Memphis Grizzlies as well as three G-League teams: the Wisconsin Herd, Motor City Cruise and Raptors 905. In December, the Raptors signed him to a two-way contract worth $415,000. He has played in 26 games for the Raptors this season, averaging 13.8 minutes and 4.4 points per game.

What games are being investigated?
The investigation is currently centered on two games that Porter participated in:

The first game came on Jan. 26, between the Raptors and the Los Angeles Clippers. In that game, Porter played four minutes and 24 seconds. He scored zero points and made no 3-pointers while racking up only one assist and three rebounds. He exited the game after that limited playing time with the Raptors saying at the time that he re-aggravated an eye injury he’d suffered in Toronto’s previous game, a Jan. 22 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies.
The second game came on March 20 between the Raptors and the Sacramento Kings. Porter’s playing time was again limited, this time to two minutes and 43 seconds. He again exited the game early, this time with the Raptors saying it happened due to illness. Porter scored no points and dished out no assists while finishing with only two rebounds.
Why are these games being investigated?
The NBA is investigating these games because of irregular betting patterns surrounding Porter’s prop bets. In the first game, there were prop lines available for Porter’s points (over or under 5.5), rebounds (4.5), assists (1.5) and made 3-pointers (0.5). In the second, Porter had lines available for roughly 7.5 points and 5.5 rebounds.

After the Jan. 26 game against the Clippers, DraftKings sent out a daily report to users that stated that the under on Porter’s 3-pointers was the biggest money winner for bettors among all NBA props from that night of games. After the March 20 game, a DraftKings media release stated that Porter prop bets were the No. 1 moneymaker for that night of NBA games.

While the exact number will vary based on the book, the bettor and a number of other factors, prop bets are generally limited to between $1,000 and $2,000. One source told ESPN that multiple betting accounts attempted to place bets upward of $10,000 and $20,000 on Porter props ahead of the Clippers game.

“People were trying to do whatever they could to bet Jontay Porter props [against the Clippers],” the source told ESPN. “And then, just a few days ago, the same thing. We had a bunch of people trying to bet under for more.”

Porter then missed Toronto’s next two games for what the Raptors have called “personal reasons.”

So what exactly is being alleged here?
Based on the nature of these betting patterns, we can assume that the broad nature of the investigation is to determine whether or not Porter intentionally ensured that his statistics came in below those prop lines. In theory, any player has the capacity to guarantee that they miss any statistical benchmark. If a player’s 3-point prop is set at 0.5, for instance, a player can guarantee they will come in under that line simply by avoiding even attempting a 3-pointer. Prop bets are considered active once a player has appeared in a game, so a player could also simply remove himself once he gets close enough to the line.

Such a player could potentially benefit from doing so either by directly betting against themself or by informing other bettors of their intent and allowing those bettors to place bets based on that information. At this stage, though, there has been no reporting directly accusing Porter of such behavior. The investigation seemingly remains in the early stages.

Were there any extenuating circumstances that might have changed betting patterns?
Porter was not listed on the pre-game injury report for either the Jan. 26 game against the Clippers or the March 20 game against the Kings. Both games, however, saw a number of other Raptors players injured. Immanuel Quickley and Jakob Poeltl both missed the Clippers game. Quickley, Poeltl, Scottie Barnes, Chris Boucher and RJ Barrett all missed the Kings game.

The absence of these key players theoretically could have factored into the lines set for Porter, especially since Quickley, Toronto’s starting point guard and a primary ball-handler, played in the game directly preceding both of the games being investigated. Essentially, with all of those key players out, Porter would theoretically be due more minutes and shot attempts. That would be the simplest, non-gambling-related explanation for the extra interest in Porter props. Of course, any betting results as unusual as the ones involving Porter in these games warrant investigation, so the league is attempting to figure out now whether or not there was foul play involved.

What is the NBA’s policy on gambling?
The NBA’s policy on gambling is ironclad. No one affiliated with the NBA, either as a player or employee of a team or the league, is allowed to bet on any NBA property. That includes the NBA, the WNBA, the G-League, Basketball Africa League, NBA2K League or Summer League. The league makes this very clear to the players. It is stipulated in the collective bargaining agreement that all players must attend one anti-gambling training session conducted by the team or the league each season, and failing to do so generates a $100,000 fine.

Punishments for gambling violations can range from fines to suspensions to possible termination of contracts. Every team has a dedicated staffer to monitor for sports betting issues, and the league has its own team of data scientists doing the same.

Has the NBA ever disciplined a player for gambling?
Technically, the answer is yes, but it’s been a while. In 1951, eight players were banned for shaving points in college, six of whom played for City College of New York. In 1954, Jack Molinas of the Fort Wayne Pistons was permanently banned for betting on his own team while in college.

In 1961, Tony Jackson and Doug Moe were both banned due to their involvement in the 1961 NCAA men’s basketball gambling scandal, though Moe’s ban would eventually be reversed and he would go on to become a longtime NBA coach. In 1966, Roger Brown was banned merely for his association with Molinas. He was never accused of point shaving, and he was ultimately reinstated, but he never played in the NBA. He spent his entire playing career in the ABA, mostly playing for the Indiana Pacers. No player has been disciplined for gambling since.

However, the NBA has had one other major gambling scandal since then. It just involved a referee, not a player. Tim Donaghy was sentenced to 15 months in prison after pleading guilty to conspiracy to engage in wire fraud and transmitting wagering information through interstate commerce. He is known to have both bet on games that he officiated as well as pass information to bettors who would profit themselves and then pay him for correct picks.

What has been said on the record about the investigation?
Porter has not yet spoken to the media. His brother declined to address the media after his Denver Nuggets defeated the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday, March 25. The Raptors have not issued a statement on the subject.

The most extensive comments given thus far belong to Raptors coach Darko Rajakovic. He told reporters that he became aware of the situation shortly before the Raptors’ game on March 25, a loss to the Brooklyn Nets. “I never doubt injuries. I never doubt honesty from players,” Rajaković said. “Obviously, I’ve never had a situation like this before.” This would imply that that Porter himself indicated to the team that he needed to be pulled out of those games early, though Rajakovic did not say so definitively. As of his postgame press conference on Monday, Rajakovic had not addressed the team on the subject.

“I don’t know their reaction,” Rajaković said. “I just know nobody wants those kind of situations to happen to anybody, to any team. We’ve just got to deal with it.”

The investigation is still ongoing. CBS Sports will update this story as it develops.

19 Apr

NBA bans Jontay Porter for life after investigation reveals Raptors forward violated league gambling rules

The NBA issued a lifetime ban to Toronto Raptors forward Jontay Porter on Wednesday for violating league gambling rules. After an investigation, the league found Porter guilty of “disclosing confidential information to sports bettors, limiting his own participation in one or more games for betting purposes, and betting on NBA games.”

The 24-year-old Porter, who is the younger brother of Denver Nuggets forward Michael Porter Jr., went undrafted in 2019 and made his NBA debut with the Memphis Grizzlies in 2021. After spending time with multiple G League teams, he inked a two-way deal with the Raptors in December 2023 and made 26 appearances with the team this season. He last played on March 22, and was inactive for the remainder of the season after ESPN reported on March 25 that the league was looking into gambling irregularities.

“There is nothing more important than protecting the integrity of NBA competition for our fans, our teams and everyone associated with our sport, which is why Jontay Porter’s blatant violations of our gaming rules are being met with the most severe punishment,” NBA commissioner Adam Silver stated in a press release.

“While legal sports betting creates transparency that helps identify suspicious or abnormal activity, this matter also raises important issues about the sufficiency of the regulatory framework currently in place, including the types of bets offered on our games and players. Working closely with all relevant stakeholders across the industry, we will continue to work diligently to safeguard our league and game.”

The league’s report concluded that prior to the Raptors’ game against the Sacramento Kings on March 20, Porter “disclosed confidential information about his own health status” to someone he knew was a bettor. Another bettor then wagered $80,000 on a parlay bet that would have won $1.1 million if Porter hit the under on his player props. Porter subsequently removed himself from that game after less than three minutes due to illness.

Due to the unusual activity, the bet was frozen and never paid out. Licensed sports betting operators brought the suspicious bets to the NBA’s attention, which sparked the league’s investigation.

Over the last few weeks, the league also found that Porter “placed at least 13 bets on NBA games using an associate’s online betting account” from January through March of 2024. All told, Porter wagered $54,094 and received a payout of $76,059, resulting in a net winnings of $21,965.

None of those bets involved games in which Porter was playing. However, three of them involved the Raptors in multi-game parlay bets, including one in which Porter picked the Raptors to lose. Of the latter three wagers, none were successful.

The NBA’s investigation remains open and may result in future findings. Furthermore, the league has shared its findings with federal prosecutors, and will continue to do so.

To that point, it’s worth noting that ESPN’s original report indicated that there were irregularities surrounding the Raptors’ Jan. 26 game versus the Los Angeles Clippers. Porter checked out of that game after four minutes due to what the team said was an aggravation of a previous eye injury. The league did not note any specifics regarding that game in its press release.

Like other sports, the NBA has an ironclad gambling policy. No one affiliated with the NBA is allowed to wager on any NBA property, including the WNBA, G League, Basketball Africa League, NBA2K League or Summer League. Punishments for violating said rules can range from fines to termination of contracts. In Porter’s case, the league found the violations to be bad enough that he was banned from the league.

Porter is the first player to be disciplined for gambling since Roger Brown in 1966.

Jack Molinas of the Fort Wayne Pistons was permanently banned from the league in 1954 for betting on his own team while in college, while Tony Jackson and Doug Moe were both banned due to their involvement in the 1961 NCAA men’s basketball gambling scandal and Brown was banned in 1966 simply for his association with Molinas. While Moe and Brown would both later be reinstated, neither ever played in the NBA. They did, however, star in the ABA, and Moe eventually coached in the NBA.

The only major gambling scandal for the league since then involved disgraced referee Tim Donaghy, who was sentenced to 15 months in prison in 2008 after admitting to gambling on games that he officiated.

19 Apr

Top DraftKings, FanDuel daily Fantasy basketball picks for Wednesday, Apr. 17 include Dejounte Murray

Three of the four teams in the East portion of the 2024 NBA Play-In Tournament were also in this position a year ago. Miami, Atlanta and Chicago were play-in participants in 2023, making the NBA Play-In Tournament 2024 the debut in this event for Philadelphia. With a playoff-like atmosphere, should NBA DFS lineups turn to stars like Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey as they take on Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Miami? That will be a popular NBA DFS strategy, but one should, perhaps, proceed with caution in regards to Embiid.

In his MVP season last year, Embiid averaged 33.1 points in the regular season but just 23.7 points in the postseason. Yes, he was banged up during the playoffs, but that’s also the same case this year. Bypassing Embiid for daily Fantasy basketball lineups would then open up lots of NBA DFS salary cap space to utilize on others, but who should those other players be? Before making your NBA DFS picks, be sure to check out the NBA DFS advice, player rankings, stacks, and top daily Fantasy basketball picks from SportsLine’s Mike McClure.

McClure is a DFS professional with more than $2 million in career winnings. He’s also a predictive data engineer at SportsLine who uses a powerful prediction model that simulates every minute of every game 10,000 times, taking factors like matchups, statistical trends and injuries into account.

This allows him to find the best NBA DFS values and create optimal lineups that he shares only over at SportsLine. They’re a must-see for any NBA DFS player.

On Tuesday, McClure highlighted Pelicans forward Zion Williamson as one of his top picks in his NBA DFS player pool on both sites. The result: Williamson had 40 points, 11 rebounds and five assists, returning 65.25 points on DraftKings and 63.7 points on FanDuel. Anybody who included him in their lineups was well on the way to a profitable day.

McClure has turned his attention to NBA action on Wednesday and locked in his top daily Fantasy basketball picks. You can only see them by heading to SportsLine.

Top NBA DFS picks for Wednesday, April 17
For Wednesday, one of McClure’s top NBA DFS picks is rostering Hawks PG/SG Dejounte Murray, who is listed at $8,800 on DraftKings and $8,200 on FanDuel. Murray is coming off a stellar season in which he averaged a career-high of 22.5 points to go along with 6.4 assists, 5.3 rebounds and 1.4 steals. He also logged 20 doubles — more than twice as many as the eight he had last year — as he took on more distributing responsibilities when Young was sidelined. With Young back, Murray can operate more as a scorer and he dropped 32 points in the final regular season game.

Murray has scored exactly 17 points in each of his last four games against the Bulls, but he’s also combined for at least 10 rebounds plus assists in each of those. Playing off-guard favors him in this matchup more so than running the point, considering Chicago struggles more versus two-guards. The Bulls are a top-four defense against opposing PGs in terms of Fantasy points allowed on both DraftKings and FanDuel, as opposed to being in the middle-of-the-pack against SGs. Thus, Murray is a better option than Young for tonight and is justified as the most expensive SG on both sites.

Another part of McClure’s optimal NBA DFS strategy includes rostering Heat PF Nikola Jovic ($4,400 on DraftKings and $4,100 on FanDuel). A 2022 first-round pick, Jovic finally established a consistent role with Miami over the last month of the regular season. Over his final 14 games, Jovic started in each one and averaged 11.1 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.1 assists. He surpassed Kevin Love in the rotation, and the Serb produced 11 points with five rebounds in less than 20 minutes of action earlier this month versus Philadelphia.

Jovic shot 40% from beyond the arc this past season, ranking second on Miami, and that floor spacing will be needed with Embiid patrolling the paint. Philly just allowed PF Noah Clowney to score 16 points in its last game — which was the third-most of his career — and it gave up a 22-15-7 stat line to PF Paolo Banchero in its previous game. So, defending power forwards appears to be a weakness for the Sixers, and Jovic is the type of low-cost, high-reward option that could outproduce his NBA DFS price tags. See McClure’s other NBA DFS picks right here.

How to set your NBA DFS lineups for Wednesday, April 17
McClure is also targeting a player who could go off for massive numbers on Wednesday because of a dream matchup. This pick could be the difference between winning your tournaments and cash games or going home with nothing. You can only see who it is here.

Who is DFS pro Mike McClure putting in his optimal NBA DFS lineups for Wednesday? Visit SportsLine now to see optimal NBA DFS picks, rankings, advice, and stacks, all from a professional DFS player who has over $2 million in career winnings, and find out.

19 Apr

2024 NBA Play-In Tournament picks, April 17 best bets by proven model

The Philadelphia 76ers have gotten hot at just the right moment as they take an eight-game winning streak into Wednesday’s Eastern Conference Play-In game against the Miami Heat. The 8-seed Heat (46-36), who have won two in a row, have won two of three postseason series against Philadelphia, including a 4-2 win over it in the 2022 East semifinals. The 7-seed 76ers (47-35), who finished third in the Atlantic Division, are 25-16 on their home court. The teams split four games during the regular season with both teams winning one home and one road game. Joel Embiid (knee) is listed as questionable, while Miami lists Terry Rozier (neck) as out.

The game from the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia will tip off at 7 p.m. ET. Philadelphia is averaging 114.6 points per game, 15th-best in the league, while Miami averages 110.1, 26th-best. The Sixers are 5.5-point favorites in the latest Heat vs. 76ers odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 208. Before making any 76ers vs. Heat picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer simulation model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 88-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,600. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Sixers vs. Heat and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Heat vs. Sixers:

Heat vs. 76ers spread: Philadelphia -5.5
Heat vs. 76ers over/under: 208 points
Heat vs. 76ers money line: Philadelphia -222, Miami +184
MIA: The Heat have hit the money line in 28 of their last 48 away games (+22.15 units)
PHI: The 76ers have hit the third-quarter game total under in 40 of their last 62 games (+17.15 units)
Heat vs. 76ers picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the 76ers can cover
Miami seems to bring out the best in power forward Tobias Harris. In 32 career games against the Heat, Harris is averaging 17.7 points, 6.4 rebounds and two assists in 34 minutes. In his only action against Miami this season, he scored 27 points, grabbed seven rebounds and dished out six assists in a 119-113 loss on Dec. 25. For the year, Harris has played in 70 games, all starts, and is averaging 17.2 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.1 assists in 33.8 minutes.

Shooting guard Kelly Oubre Jr. has also taken a liking to playing against the Heat. In four games against them this season, Oubre is averaging 18.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, two assists, 1.8 blocks and one steal. In a 98-91 win over Miami on March 18, Oubre registered a double-double with 22 points and 11 rebounds. In 68 games, including 52 starts, he is averaging 15.4 points, five rebounds, 1.5 assists and 1.1 steals in 30.2 minutes. See who to back at SportsLine.

Why the Heat can cover
Last year, Jimmy Butler came alive during the postseason. He is primed to do the same this time around as he finished tied with Tyler Herro as Miami’s top scorer during the regular season. In 60 games, all starts, Butler is averaging 20.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, five assists and 1.3 steals in 34 minutes. The small forward has reached double-figure scoring in each of the last nine games, including 27 in a 117-115 loss at Indiana on April 7. He scored 20 points and added five assists and four rebounds in a 109-105 loss to Philadelphia on April 4, the only time he faced them in 2023.

Herro has also been red hot of late, reaching double figures in all six games since returning from injury. He poured in 33 points, grabbed five rebounds and dished out four assists in a 117-111 double-overtime win at Atlanta on April 9. In two games against the 76ers this season, he is averaging 22.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and six assists in 38 minutes. For the year, he has started 40 of 42 games, averaging 20.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.5 assists, and is connecting on 44.1% of his field goals, including 39.6% from 3-point range, and 85.6% at the foul line. See who to back at SportsLine.

How to make Heat vs. 76ers picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 207 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only get the model’s picks at SportsLine.

So who wins 76ers vs. Heat, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that’s 88-58 on top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.

19 Apr

Expect 76ers, Heat to light it up as Bulls will handle Hawks

Now that the 2024 NBA postseason has begun, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals. All game lines courtesy of SportsLine consensus unless otherwise specified.

Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers
Yes, you should be afraid of Jimmy Butler going “you chose Tobias Harris over me???” all over the 76ers again, but he really isn’t the most problematic matchup in this game. How does Miami plan to slow down Tyrese Maxey? The 76ers and Heat have played three teams since Valentine’s Day. Maxey scored 97 combined points in those matchups and was never held below 30. Philadelphia beat Miami on its home court less than two weeks ago, and before you start citing Miami’s postseason history, remember, the Heat lost their first play-in game to Atlanta last season before going on a Finals run. The 76ers are the better team, and they’ll prove it Wednesday. The Pick: 76ers -5

The 208-point total seems a tad low. Yes, the Heat had the NBA’s 21st-ranked offense this season, and yes, Terry Rozier will miss this game due to injury. Still, the favorable Maxey matchup should help the 76ers score plenty of points, and remember, even in a down period for offense and fouls, Joel Embiid has still managed to draw 49 free-throw attempts in the roughly 152 minutes he’s played since returning. That’s more or less in line with his season and career career averages. If Miami can’t stay in front of Maxey and Embiid is getting to the line, their best bet will be to lean into offense and try to win this game by outscoring Philadelphia. The Pick: Over 208

We’ve talked a lot about Philly’s favorable matchups here. How about Miami’s? Without De’Anthony Melton the 76ers don’t have an ideal solution to Tyler Herro, who will get extra shots with Rozier sidelined and Duncan Robinson nursing a back injury. Scoring has been an issue for Miami, and Butler will surely be the focus of Philly’s game plan, but that leaves room for a nice game out of Herro. The Pick: Herro Over 20.5 Points

Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls
Atlanta was 14-14 without Trae Young this season… and 22-32 with him. Chicago is an especially pesky matchup for Atlanta because DeMar DeRozan and Coby White are both capable of hunting him in pick-and-roll, and on the other end of the floor, Alex Caruso is going to hound him all night. The healthy Hawks are here largely by default. Someone had to claim the No. 10 seed in the East, but the Dejounte Murray-centric version of the team that played largely acceptable defense and had a more diverse offense was undeniably the better version this season. Expect the Hawks to go out with a whimper as they head into an offseason filled with change. The Pick: Bulls -3

The Bulls played two play-in games last season. They averaged 208.5 points in total, which is a reflection of their style. The Bulls ranked 28th in pace this season, and while the Hawks ranked sixth, the postseason tends to favor teams that grind games to a halt. Chicago should be able to dictate pace in this matchup as it did in last year’s play-in games, and that means the final score should be relatively low. The Pick: Under 221.5

Young isn’t going to guard White or DeRozan. That means he’s almost certainly going to primarily match up against Caruso, a convenient assignment considering how often Caruso will be guarding him. Caruso has quietly made a career-high 40.8% of his 3-point attempts this season, averaging 1.9 made 3’s per game. Young is going to lose him on defense because, well, that’s what Young does, and Caruso made four 3’s on eight attempts in last year’s play-in loss to the Heat. He isn’t afraid to fire away. The Pick: Caruso Over 1.5 Made 3’s